So-called "Rural Vote" offers Little Hope for the Saskatchewan NDP
Post-byelection chatter is focused on the wrong part of the province
Here on Prairie Townscapes, we have a number of articles planned that focus on urban issues and how they intersect with prairie cities — with a particular focus on Regina.
But as the dust settles on three recent provincial by-elections held in and near Regina, media chatter and online discourse has once again turned to the state of Saskatchewan’s electoral geography, notably the so-called urban-rural divide —
[…] as much as the party is celebrating two more urban MLAs, the NDP’s performance in the rural Lumsden-Morse seat is equally sobering — and shows the widening urban-rural split in Saskatchewan.
-Phil Tank (emphasis added)
Spend any amount of time in certain circles in Saskatchewan and you’ll hear how the beleaguered Saskatchewan NDP, once considered the province’s natural governing party, just needs to get back “the rural vote” and presto! The party will return to government after the next election.
However, digging beneath the surface reveals a more complicated picture, and this #skpoli version of the internet’s famed “One Weird Trick” quickly begins to break down under scrutiny.
Rural-Urban Electoral Divides - A Phenomenon Across North America and the Western World
Modern analyses of political party structures go at least as far back as studies by academics such as Lipset and Rokkan, who looked at how varied interests in society ended up together in “big tent” parties.
More recently, election results in the US, Canada, Great Britain and elsewhere in the western democratic world have demonstrated voting patterns where density — that is, concentration of people in a particular space — increasingly corresponds to party support.
Saskatchewan isn’t exempt from this pattern, either. With 2016 and 2020 provincial election results by constituency compiled in an Excel table, a quick CORREL calculation shows that Saskatchewan NDP vote percentage was correlated with urban seats in 2016 (r = 0.62) and even more so in 2020 (r = 0.69).
Saskatchewan Isn’t Really a Rural Province Anymore
Someone will chortle with derision while reading this and point toward the closest map of Saskatchewan. “Look at the size of this province! That’s not all city out there, you know!”
Yes, it is true that Saskatchewan has a lot of wide-open spaces. But people increasingly live and vote in the province’s urban areas (a theme that dovetails nicely with the over-arching theme of Prairie Townscapes.)
The 2021 census confirms it — with a total Saskatchewan population of 1,132,505 people, just over half (580,246) of Saskatchewan’s population lives in the combined Cities of Regina (population 226,404), Saskatoon (population 266,141), Prince Albert (37,756) Moose Jaw (population 33,665) and Yorkton (population 16,280).
Viewed another way, essentially half of Saskatchewan’s population (566,697) lives in the combined Regina and Saskatoon Census Metropolitan Areas (populations 249,217 and 317,480, respectively).
While one might debate whether all areas of Regina and Saskatoon are truly “urban” — to say nothing of the other cities named — the ‘burbs are clearly a denser form of habitation than the vast acreages and townships of the prairies.
The Saskatchewan NDP, Strictly Speaking, Doesn’t Need Rural Seats to Win
Under the Representation Act, 2012, the majority, or 32 of Saskatchewan’s 61 provincial seats could be described as “urban”. Winning all of these seats would have allowed the Saskatchewan NDP to name a speaker from its ranks and still command a majority of the remaining Legislative Assembly seats.
Swapping out the elusive urban seats of Yorkton and Swift Current for the long-held (until recently) seats of Athabasca and Cumberland also provides for a total of 32 seats.
At first glance, the Final Recommended Maps from the 2022 Saskatchewan Constituency Boundaries Commission seem even more favourable for the Saskatchewan NDP in this regard. The Regina Wascana Plains seat is now fully urban, and Saskatoon-Stonebridge is split off from the rural “Dakota” section. Regina and Saskatoon will again make up 26 of the total 61 seats.
While some other seats (Swift Current, Yorkton, the two Moose Jaw seats) have taken on neighbouring rural areas, others (Lloydminster, The Battlefords) seem to have shrunk geographically.
As we await notional results to help analyze the new boundaries further, it would seem the Saskatchewan NDP will have an easier time in Saskatchewan’s two largest cities, at least.
There are No Obvious Rural Seats for the Saskatchewan NDP to Pick Up
With the same table of 2016 and 2020 provincial election results from above, I sorted the 2020 seats in descending order by Saskatchewan NDP support.
While it isn’t true that the worst urban seat for the Saskatchewan NDP is better than the best rural seat, reality comes pretty close.
Here is the messy middle range of seats where the Saskatchewan NDP would have to find their majority —
As mentioned above, assuming they could build up the required support, it is possible for the Saskatchewan NDP to win a total of 32 seats with the 2012 versions of Athabasca, Cumberland, and all the “Urban” seats, minus Yorkton and Swift Current (Note that the “rurban” Regina Wascana Plains and Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota seats are counted as urban here, which, incidentally they will become in 2024).
However, even winning these seats would be a heavy lift, and with previous support levels ranging from 24% to 29%, it’s not obvious which of these rural seats would become the next pickup opportunity.
Meanwhile, much as with the pressures facing the governing Saskatchewan Party, catering too much to rural voters may alienate urban voters whom the Saskatchewan NDP would absolutely need to hold on to, as some of the online commentary has already started to allude to.
Beyond the Rural-Urban Divide
The discourse should shift towards the need for the Saskatchewan NDP to win the smaller city vote, rather than focusing on their need to pursue the so-called “rural vote” — that has instead shown a willingness to throw support behind the Buffalo Party and most recently, the Saskatchewan United Party.
As we saw earlier this year in Alberta, an efficient vote strategy, focusing relentlessly on needed swing urban seats, could lead the Saskatchewan NDP to the doorstep of victory — if not open up the door itself.